My New Crypto Prediction for 2023 and 2024

And one small update

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

Okay, yup, I’m done.

I’m here on Substack full-time… starting… now!

My Medium viewership is a dumpster fire after I published a few controversial stories in October and this is happening to other writers as well.

We’re getting the middle finger right up the ass.

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My best stories will be on Substack moving forward, so please continue to support my work during this transition period! Smash the subscribe button, hit the notification bell, light the beacons, and buy my NFT collection.

Okay, here is my 2023 crypto prediction:

The Standout Trade

The trade that everyone has been talking about for over a year is finally happening. Gold and silver are going up while stocks and the dollar are down.

In 2022 the major published countries buying gold are Turkey: 41.17 tons, Uzbekistan: 26.13 tons, India: 17.46, Qatar: 14.77 tons, Mozambique: 2.33 tons. Info is not available for China and Russia (Oh, they buying).

In 2021 major CBs purchasers of gold were Thailand, India, Hungary, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Singapore, and Kazakhstan.

It is not surprising that these countries are buying gold. They prefer gold to US dollars. I have some exposure to gold for moments like these and I will watch gold closely as I see fiat currencies in continued trouble.

Timing will mean a lot in this trade:

WSJ/ Gold (blue) is up 10% since Oct. while SPY (yellow) has remained constant

That said, my stand-out trade isn’t gold, it is still Bitcoin and Ethereum. Here’s why. If Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain their promise of decentralization they will be assets to own for life. The U.S. doesn’t own them, and no single government (read: Russia, China or Saudi Arabia) can manipulate them for their own benefit.

I know you’re rolling your eyes.

I know you’ve heard this before.

I’m not reinventing the wheel here, but Bitcoin and Ethereum have incredible long-term value.

The gold trade is overcrowded causing many to flee to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which, due to crypto-related events (Luna, Ftx), most of the damage is already done and there isn’t much sell pressure left (nowhere near close as tradfi).

It’s already happening, by the way.

Crypto is losing its correlation with the stock market and rising on its own:

Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool

Crypto got fucked this year.

But there is a silver lining.

Hard times and true transparent DeFi will strengthen crypto. I’m still all-in, but we need to build off the core philosophy that Bitcoin and Eth were founded on: decentralization and transparency. If we don’t we’re only making a digital version of the draconian Trad-Fi system we all hate… just with a few extra steps.

Takeaway

Crypto is either going to zero or will continue to survive as a parallel financial institution—and in an era where gold is thriving, I don’t see digital gold dying.

I see the crypto opportunity as a gift.

It’s a gift to all Millennials and 20-somethings who were fucked by 2008; who were lured into predatory colleges that taught them nothing and saddled them with inhumane debt; who can’t afford a house; who will own nothing and rent everything; who won’t have social security, cheap healthcare, and real wages that outpace inflation.

Either that or we’re getting a digital centralized dollar shoved down our small intestines making Orwell spin in his grave. We’ll probably get both.

Turbulent times ahead.

Not financial advice.