Germany Under Attack and Europe’s Energy Emergency

Don’t say I didn’t warn you

We were somewhere around Lake Placid, on the edge of the forest, when the bear came toward us. It was a large black bear, and it was clearly hungry.

I didn’t think, I just ran.

Fight or flight.

That day I learned an important lesson: Fight or Flight is bullshit. I ran, my friend Jonathan ran, but my friend Nick didn’t move, as if he was turned to stone. Life isn’t just fighting or flighting, there’s always a third option: being paralyzed. When the fear takes over and you can’t even move. That’s when the real danger begins.

This is what’s happening to Europe right now. They’re on the brink of the Dark Ages. They facing a large, powerful Bear, and they’re completely frozen.

“Europe is short energy in the most literal, physical, sense,” Mark Nelson, the managing director of the Radiant Energy Group said in an interview. “It’s my read at this point that companies see something they can’t even get their heads around. They can’t engage with the market at this price. They don’t know what to do. They’re paralyzed, and the public has no idea.”

I’m scared. Paralyzed even.

You don’t know what’s coming.

Life Shuts Down at These Costs

Real Vision

Come on man.

When you have electricity costs going up 700 and 800 Euros a baseload you should probably stop talking about last night’s game or the Emmys and start paying attention. Europe is rapidly descending into poverty as you can see here:

• Last year only 6% of Germans used wood to heat their homes, now firewood is sold out across the entire country

• In Poland, families are standing in hour-long lines to buy coal

• Slovenian metal factories are warning electric companies that at these prices their customers will not survive and they’ll have no one to deliver to

The Russia-Ukraine war has a clear goal: it’s about sucking Europe dry.

Europe experienced Covid-19 whiplash. 

The demand for energy was low during the pandemic lockdowns and then it came roaring back as economies reopened and Russia cut off its Nord Stream gas pipeline. This created a perfect storm, and now energy prices are spiking beyond absurdity.

And if you’re American and think this isn’t going to affect our economy, supply chain, and investment portfolio, you’re wrong: The more Europeans spend on energy, the less money they have for other things. This will hurt U.S. companies who sell in Europe and it will destroy global growth. 

It’s Not Priced in

I use the phrase “Germany is Under Attack” because they had the strongest economy before this. They also had the best chance of weathering this storm. But Germany is struggling in a way that‘s going to have ripple effects throughout the entire world.

It turns out that former German Chancellor Angela Merkel turning off the most modern best crewed nuclear plants on Earth wasn't a good idea.

Here’s how it went down:

-Hi, I’m former German Chancelor Angela Merkel

-I’m a nuclear physicist so I know the clear benefits of nuclear power

-Oh no, I can see Fukushima from 10 megameters (62,000 miles) away

-Let’s turn off the German plants because they are at risk to…..getting flooded by a tsunami? Beats me!?

Moreover, Merkel thought Trump was nuts when he said, “Relying so much on Russia for your energy is a bad idea.” 

SMH.

It gets worse. 

Europe bases its grid in bulk on green energy solutions. In other words WEATHER PATTERNS like solar and wind solutions.

They’re combatting climate change by relying on weather-based energy solutions that are completely unpredictable because of climate change.

“You can’t base your energy supply, which is there to respond and smooth out the harshness of climate change, on weather patterns. Society’s leaders were not ready for both supply and demand be strongly affected by the weather.”

— Mark Nelson

Nuclear War

WE ARE CLOSER TO NUCLEAR WAR THAN EVER BEFORE.
WE ARE CLOSER TO NUCLEAR WAR THAN EVER BEFORE.
WE ARE CLOSER TO NUCLEAR WAR THAN EVER BEFORE.

Or are we really?

Putin is being pushed into a corner like an animal.

He badly misread the international community, underestimated Ukraine, overestimated Russian power, and fucked up beyond recognition. Bush’s Iraq seems negligible. There is no scenario where Russia comes out in a better position than it did before. None.

Europe will never import Russian energy again, and Russia will have lost 70% of its energy markets forever.

So are we going nuclear?

Isaiah McCall @AfroReporter

But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With Putin, a day is like a thousand years.

Image John Voo from Flickr

No one can say for sure. Though, New York did release a bizarre “Nuclear Blast Preparedness” video recently. Additionally, former Trump national security adviser John Bolton said “We’re closer than ever to being nuked.”

I call bull Mr. Bolton.

This isn’t the closest we’ve been to nuclear annihilation.

Three incidents in the Cold War were closer: the Cuban missile crisis, Able Archer 83 and when Russian early warning systems malfunctioned and a captain refused to fire because he thought it was an error. Look 'em up.

Final Thought

So much is happening.

If you’re in Europe, this Winter is going to be really tough. If you’re in the US, buckle up because this is going to have ripple effects. And if you think all of this is like saying “The sky is falling,” then you’re wrong. This is real and it’s happening now.

Lastly, as I’ve been telling you, be careful about how much you invest in the markets right now.

Even with Apple releasing their latest iPhone or the Ethereum merge happening this week, there are bigger things at play.

And those things don’t look good. I’ve transferred a bulk of my holdings to stablecoins (read here if you’d like to know what those are).

As always, stay safe out there.

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