10 Global Trends That Every Smart Person Should Know
Perception is not reality
Why do so many smart people wrongly believe, all things considered, that the world is getting worse? The doomsday narrative is what captures the clicks.
And according to Marian Tupy author of “10 Global Trends That Every Smart Person Should Know,” the answer is simple: Perception is not reality.
Smart people naturally seek to be informed, but in our era of fearmongering and doomsday journalism, it’s easy to forget that the world is getting better in many ways.
Unless we completely nuke ourselves into oblivion—or eat each other in a culture war— the world your offspring will come to know will be better than the one you grew up in, statistically speaking.
1. The Most Important Graph Ever
Ready? Here it is:
In other words, the average person today is about three times richer than the average person two centuries ago. And that’s not just exclusive to North America. The same is true for Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America.
The world is getting richer, and that’s a good thing. However, I’d be remiss not to mention that creator of this graph and NYU professor Jonathan Haidt had this to say:
“When I show this graph in Asia,” Haidt told Reason, “the audiences love it, and seem to take it as an aspirational road map… But when I show this graph in Europe and North America, I often receive more ambivalent reactions. ‘We can’t just keep growing forever!’ some say. ‘We’ll destroy the planet!’ say others. These objections seem to come entirely from the political left, which has a history, stretching back centuries, of ambivalence or outright hostility to capitalism.”
2. The End of Poverty
Bold claim.
But there is data to support it.
University of Paris economist François Bourguignon estimates that in 1820 nearly 84 percent of the world’s population lived in abject poverty (roughly $1.90 in today’s dollars).
By 1981, that number had fallen to 42 percent.
And by 2013, it was down to 10 percent.
The latest data from the world bank estimates that about 9.2% of the world, or 689 million people, live in extreme poverty. Yes, we still have work to do, but the trend is clear like a Q-tip up your nose.
3. Commodity Prices Have Fallen
Yawn.
I promise this is the last boring one about economics.
It’s worth understanding, however, because it’s one of the main drivers of the Great Enrichment. In short, falling commodity prices, as adjusted for wage growth/inflation, have made the world richer. Commodities that took 60 minutes of work to buy in 1980 only take 21 minutes of work to buy today. That’s a big deal.
Important to point out that this data was taken before the Russia-Ukraine conflict so things could change
But for now, commodities are still cheap compared to years past
Moreover, as Tupy points out, the totality of our resources is neither known nor fixed. Every day, we find new sources of oil, gas, and minerals, and we keep discovering more efficient ways to extract them.
4. Is Overpopulation a Concern?
No.
Here’s another important graph:
Women are having fewer than two babies in the US and much of Western Europe; additionally, China is actually having a population crisis with the majority of its young people being male and a shrinking workforce.
China’s one-child policy was fucking stupid and myopic—who could have guessed that a government controlling every aspect of its citizens' lives would make a poor decision?
Lastly, Western college-educated women are having the fewest babies.
This is Elon Musk’s point about being underpopulated. He’s concerned that the smartest people are having the fewest kids.
We need to figure that out. Or else we will end up like the movie “Idiocracy.”
5. We Have Too Much Food
So, apparently the world is shoving down 3,000 calories each day. Shocked? Yeah, me neither. Seems like we're drowning in food.
We are so good at producing food that it’s becoming a problem. In 2016, the world produced 17 percent more food than it did in 2000.
This means the amount of food wasted each year is enough to feed every single person on the planet. It’s depressing, like the time I saw a turtle with a Covid mask stuck on its head.
Better distribution and less waste are the key here, not more production.
6. More Land for Nature
Take this with a grain of salt.
On one hand, Tupy points out that the “amount trees in the United States and China have increased by 34 percent and 15 percent, respectively.”
On the other hand, biodiversity continues to decline as we encroach on animal habitats and overfish the oceans.
There’s also a startling report that animal populations have experienced an average decline of almost 70% since 1970. So, while there’s been some progress, we still have a long way to go to protect the planet’s animals.
7. Planet City
“Cities are the centers of innovation, engines of growth, and home to the richest segment of the population — just think of Delhi, London, New York, Shanghai, Seoul, and Tokyo.”
— Marian L. Tupy
The world’s population is increasingly urban. In 1800, only 3 percent of the world’s population lived in cities. By 1950, it was 30 percent.
Today, more than 54 percent of the world’s population lives in cities, and by 2100 the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development estimates that 85% of the world’s population will be urbanized.
Speaking as a New Yorker, this is a bit of a Catch-22.
Living in the city is great, if you like constant crowds and living in filth. Plus everyone I know has a story of how they were almost stabbed, shot or raped at gunpoint. Everyone.
As Hunter S. Thompson once said of NY, “It gives one perspective, I think, that would be impossible to get anywhere else in the world. But god have mercy on those who can live with this perspective.”
8. Democracy: Coming to a Theater Near You
Democracies aren’t expanding as fast as they used to, but they are still spreading.
In 1900, only 10 percent of the world’s population lived in a democracy; today, more than 60 percent of the world’s population is governed by democratically elected leaders.
Another Catch-22.
Did Libya and Iraq relish their taste of democracy?
If derelict cities, the creation of ISIS, inciting civil war, and complete economic destruction are a success then I’d say democracy worked very well there.
9. World War 3
Trend nine was initially titled “The Long Peace” largely because there hasn’t been a world war since 1945.
Fun while it lasted, I guess.
“The Long Peace” has been replaced by a potential “World War 3.”
If you have time read “We Are On a Path to Nuclear War” by Jeremy Shapiro. Shapiro is the director of research at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former advisor to the US State Department under President Barack Obama.
He says that Russia and Ukraine both want a “maximalist victory,” meaning neither is backing down and this war keeps escalating — not to mention the US isn’t helping to NEGOTIATE a fucking peace deal!—so the chances of a nuclear war increase by the day.
We're supposed to be a smart species, right? And yet here we are, once again flirting with the idea of nuclear annihilation like some kind of sick sequel of "Dr. Strangelove." … but this is supposed to be a positive article, so here’s a video of NBA star Patrick Beverly calling a referee trash.
10. Death
Deaths in climate-related disasters have declined 99% from a century ago, according to data conducted by Bjørn Lomborg a statistician and president of the think tank Copenhagen Consensus Center.
So while climate-related death is still very much a thing, we are getting better at avoiding it.
How will this hold up going forward? Not sure. Could be bad. My point of optimism, however, is that we've tackled tough issues before and come out alive. So maybe, just maybe, we won't all be doomed.
I think it takes listening to the most ardent climate change supporters like Ocean Physics Professor Peter Wadhams and experts who claim climate alarmism like Lomborg.
It is best not to fix a problem with ill-informed fear.
Final Thought
Sanguine.
That’s the word of the day.
It means stop being a doomer always. For most of human history we starved to death and worked to death. Now we overeat to death and rest to death while blaming our ancestors.
Yes, there are still problems: homelessness, Ukraine, death of God, culture wars, currency debasement, and In-N-Out Burger not being on the East Coast.
It doesn’t change the fact that the biggest problem in my life is Isaiah McCall.
And the biggest problem in your life is probably you and what’s in your control.
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My cousin is a 24-year-old teacher and her fiance is a 26-year-old account at Deloitte. Both college educated and working not-too-shabby jobs. They live in Idaho (not NY or LA) and have decided to NOT have kids because, even on a double income, they can't afford to buy a home, pay off their student loans and support children all the way through heir own college education(s). Maybe Elon can figure out how to economically encourage young, smart people to afford being parents.